NVIDIA and the 2023-2024 AI Bubble: The World's Most Important Chip
How the launch of ChatGPT transformed NVIDIA from a gaming chip company into the gravitational center of the entire AI economy
Between January 2023 and June 2024, NVIDIA rose by 900%. Demand for H100 AI GPUs was so high that waitlists lasted months. A case study on identifying the picks-and-shovels of AI.
Before AI: NVIDIA as a gaming company
Until 2022, NVIDIA was primarily known as a manufacturer of GPUs for gaming and crypto mining. Then came ChatGPT.
The GPU as AI infrastructure
The H100, NVIDIA's flagship GPU, became the most sought-after asset in the tech world. Meta, Google, Microsoft, and Amazon spent tens of billions on NVIDIA GPUs. The stock went from $140 to over $1,200 β a 757% increase.
Lessons
- Identify the enabling infrastructure of every new trend.
- Defensible tech monopolies create excess returns.
- Valuation matters even in technological revolutions.